Category Archives: Ideas

A thought on depressions…

An economic boom is a time when the value consumed exceeds the value generated within an economy. In other words, there is money floating around that does not actually have a grounding in any valuable economic activity but can be used to consume value all the same (remember, money is not actually value; it’s an imprecise representation of it). The bust that invariably follows such an era is the elimination of the “negative value” that has accumulated from such a boom and a return to economic equilibrium, where money actually begins to represent value again. If I can be so bold as to rip off one of the laws of thermodynamics for my own purposes:

The overall change in the energy of a system is the change in heating – the change in work. In economics, the formulation is even simpler: profit = revenue – cost.

They are actually saying the same thing using different terms. In fact, if you used energy as a currency, these would be exactly the same law.

This time around, many people were given loans that they could not repay. These loans appear to have been used primarily to finance house purchases, which caused demand to rise and the price of a house to artificially increase. It was, of course, the sort of fake money I had just mentioned, untied to any real value because nothing significantly changed in overall productivity to match the increased consumption.

The economy, unlike the universe, is an open system. Value can be both added and removed. No significant value was added to the system, so “value revenue” was 0. The money used to purchase houses destroyed value, so “value cost” was positive. Thus, value was lost.

Because money is an imprecise measure of value, it took a while for people to notice, and thus everything appeared to be going really well.

Until it finally caught up, of course. The fall in house prices that followed was an act of balance. The pathological money was eliminated from the economy as house prices fell, thus it became tied to the actual value of the houses again. (The other solution that would have resulted in equilibrium would have been massive amounts of inflation, so this is actually preferable).

The reason why this is a disaster rippling throughout the economy is mere reliance on this fake money by both the lenders (who collected interest on it) and the borrowers (who “leveraged” it). The interest they collected was fake value too, of course. And then they invested that into other assets. And that was also fake.

When the bubble burst, this complex web of interdependencies, all built with valueless money, fell apart. That’s my take on it, anyway.

So for those who consider my frustration with inauthenticity unwarranted, consider what effect it has had on your economy. They spring from the same cause.

Using a cell phone as a modem.

This is probably obvious to some of you already. For the others, perhaps this is informative and/or neat.

I was tinkering with my cellphone’s Bluetooth connectivity today and found out that you can map serial ports to the phone. Curious, I opened up PuTTY and typed in “ATDT <my phone number>”…

And it began to dial.

Quite a bit of nostalgia… and it technically means you can make fax and data calls out with the phone too. Sort of like having a modem + phone all in one.

Unfortunately, this being 2008 and not 1995, there isn’t much use for that anymore 🙂

Crisis-free disintegration?

Here’s an interesting thought:

Why are developmental crises necessary for positive disintegration to occur? Is it intrinsic to the abandonment of stability; of securely-held and long-reinforced beliefs?

In a supportive enough environment, would it be possible to abandon such beliefs and ease into those created on one’s own with little to no conflict? Or must the whole process be fraught with internal anguish?

I wonder…

Internet-payable meters

The scramble to pay a parking meter is sort of ridiculous, as is the gamble of “put too little in and you could get ticketed, put too much in and you waste money”.

It seems that an easier model would be a meter that senses when you park and leave, then bills you for the total time you spent.

Or one you could pay online.

Or both.

Greatness is never measured by quantity.

The rage today is to boast about one’s publication count, the number of pieces one has written, or just generally the quantity of one’s productive output.

Greatness is never measured by quantity, however. What distinguished great individuals wasn’t how much output they created, but how novel the output was.

And yet everyone is so quantity-centric.

Aiming too low.

I just read about that “Stand Up to Cancer” initiative in Time magazine and realized that, while it introduces some things that people should have been doing from the beginning, other aspects are essentially more of the same in another guise.

The “dream team” concept is ok, although this again brings up the issue of selection accuracy and the goals as well as the abilities of the people you’re selecting. Putting these people together is phenomenal and could produce some exciting collaborations.

Going for cancers such as GBM and pancreatic is also a great idea, as these have been neglected and currently have very poor survival rates. These forms of cancer are essentially death sentences today, and treatments that can raise survival rates are long overdue.

The problem is one of metrics. Everyone wants only the best scientists to work on their projects. But how are these scientists going to be selected? Publication counts? Approval of their peers? “h-index”?

Whatever it is, it won’t be directly on the strength of their ideas. This is a pity, because the existing methods don’t work on the cancers you’re targeting (and they don’t work too well in general). Even the notion of a survival rate is absurd. Do people speak about survival rates for influenza? For the cold? Even for the black plague these days? No – because these diseases are either innately harmless or have been rendered harmless. It is highly unusual for people to die of them. Cancer isn’t like that – it’s innately harmful, and only very few cancers have actually been rendered harmless by medicine.

That brings me to a bigger mistake – one that Stand Up to Cancer makes in the same way that existing research programs do. Research scientists don’t get funding unless they have results. SUtC scientists won’t get funding unless they have a treatment. You’re calling it something else, but the bottom line is: you want to see an immediate return on your investment.

Cancer is a big problem, like energy independence. There is no immediate return on the investment, and if you try to make one, you’ll end up with “publish or perish” in a new form – tons of simple incremental advances which do nothing to revolutionize the field.

And that is tied in with the third, and largest, problem with this endeavor: no one is speaking of a “cure”. You all want to “increase” survival rates, not to render the concept obsolete. If you can get the 5 year survival rate of pancreatic cancer up from 3% to 6%, you’ll call it a victory and tout how much progress you’re making.

True, the other 3% will appreciate it. It’s worth it. But it’s short of the goal you need to look for.

If anyone over the age of 8, even a world renowned oncologist, were to speak of “curing cancer”, you would laugh at him. The entire scientific community would laugh at him. He wouldn’t find funding. His research endeavors would be doomed from the start.

And the bottom line is this: you have set the bar too low because you are collectively afraid of failure. You ridicule anyone who attempts to make an audacious advance, because it’s far easier to tout a string of minor successes.

But in the end, it’s that major advance that’s required to do away with this disease. And you’ll never find it if you’re averse to the very idea that a cure could exist.

One might be right under your nose, and you’d miss it. Imagine if Fleming had discovered Penicillin and, instead of remarking on its properties, shouted “preposterous!” and dumped it in the trash. (And that brings up another point: Fleming was another of what I call “near misses”, because, were it not for Chain, his work may have never attained publicity).

So if you want earnest results, start making earnest attempts. Be committed. Be bold. Give it 100% and don’t accept anything short of 100% as an end goal.

The Critical Question

This has become one of the most important questions of my life, and will only continue to grow in importance should I continue down the path I’m on:

“If strength of an idea is a necessary but not a sufficient condition for adoption of that idea, what are the remaining conditions? Why is culture the way it is? Why were some ideas selected, others discarded?”

I cannot accept that it is random. I would be ashamed to live in such a society if it were. So what could this mystical formula, this holy grail of marketing, be? Why do so many good ideas go unimplemented? How can I increase the probability that my own are adopted?

Another idea.

This is perhaps the simplest one I’ve had yet, but have people simply tried injecting p53 (or more likely, a cocktail of tumor suppressors, of which p53 is only one) into tumors? Or somehow delivering it systemically?

They’re called tumor suppressors for a reason, and most cancers require their inactivation to proliferate.